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Consumer Products Corner - Financial Fitness: Which companies will emerge from this upcoming holiday season as winners…and which will be left behind?

YoY revenue trends by CP sector have been mixed, and overall median EBITDA is trending downwards, except for Food and Beverage. In the near-term, revenue and EBITDA margin have been trending upwards in Food, Home, and Packaging while Durables, Luxury, and Health have all been trending negatively. These clear sector winners are reflected in recent economic data where retail sales fell in October, suggesting consumers may have started to finally tighten their wallets. Consumers are prioritizing essentials and many CP companies are reacting with more aggressive discounts. Ultimately, EBITDA performance across CP sectors will likely begin to reflect these headwinds going into 2024. Recent inflation headlines suggest core inflation continues to move towards the Fed’s goal of 2%. What remains to be seen is whether a ‘soft landing’ scenario will play out in 2024, or if a sharper economic correction unfolds. That answer may fall on the shoulders of American consumers – how much longer are they able and willing to spend?

On a monthly basis, AlixPartners charts sales, sentiment and supply chains in consumer-facing businesses. Learn more about the Consumer Products Corner newsletter and read previous articles, here.

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